Where will it end?

Over the past months many analysts have been trying to decipher when things are going to turn around. iCapital itself talks about it in its most recent issue. Despite all that is being said, the sad truth is that no one can tell. Of course it’s possible to compare previous recessions as iCapital has done, but there it just isn’t possible to predict what will happen in this situation by just looking at the dozen or so times the global economy has faced a serious bear market in the past since 1929. Statistically speaking the sample size is just too small to be able to produce any significant conclusions. Therefore there are only 2 things to be do in this market, which is to keep buying into good companies and average down (like Warren Buffett is doing), or get out of the market. There is no middle way, and certainly no way to predict whether the market has already past its bottom or will drop another 20%.

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2009-01-07 12:46

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