I don’t usually write political articles, but because this is partly business related I feel somewhat justified in doing so. So here you go:

The Anwar Juggernaut would have continued no matter what the by election results

This is a man who came from a politically active family and was himself a student leader, committee member and president of various political organisations. He has also demonstrated strong beliefs, leading to detention  under the ISA for a significant amount of time, two politically motivated criminal charges and falling out with the most powerful man in Malaysia.

Now, I have been fortunate enough to speak with people who have had the misfortune to be detained under the ISA, and I can tell you it is not an easy thing to go through psychologically. Imagine being locked up in a cell without a hearing, not knowing for how long and deprived of information about your friends and family. For all you know, the world could be falling. You get no phonecall and don’t receive any correspondence. Sometimes you get beaten up and you have no idea how long it will last of even if you will survive.

Anwar Ibrahim and been through these this. Despite what I think of him and his political beliefs (or lack thereof), this is a man with extraordinary physical courage with no other career to speak of (in business or other profession). Therefore I believe that even if he had lost the by election he would have kept on fighting to get into power. No matter what.

Therefore BN has completely underestimated the determination of this man, and they continue to do so by bringing Sodomy II and waging the political campaign they did against him with Arif Shah. In order to defeat this man, they would not only have to bury him - they would have had to obliterate him.

BN did not go far enough to take this man down. And they will pay the price, because Anwar is like the Terminator.

Anwar’s victory is good for the economy

BN has been propagating a myth that there is political stability in the country. because they still hold the majority. International investors are smarter than that and know that this is not the case, which is why the KLSE has been punished even more that is warranted by the global slowdown.

But what many investors fail to realise is that this process is creating more meaningful competition in parliament, and that competition always improves efficiency. Unfortunately, investors don’t usually have the luxury to wait until the process, which could take years, to complete. However, the rakyat are not as short sighted. They have demonstrated that they are more than willing to live through a temporary period of turbulence in order to improve future prospects. That is why, not only in Malaysia, but other countries too, the common vote tends to go towards the opposition in by elections which are held fairly.

This mismatch in expectations creates an arbitrage opportunity, because as members of the rakyat and an investor, you know what is going on.  At times when the international community is only focussed on the  political instability which BN is failing to correct, you know that Anwar is for real, and the process that the country is going through will result in a greater good.

Therefore if like me, your faith in this country is improving, there is no reason not to put your money in.