It is just so amusing to hear all the research reports coming out now touting shares again, when 3 or 4 weeks ago we did not hear so much as a pip out of them. What has changed between now and then? Absolutely nothing. Except that prices seem to have stopped going down. If you feel that your analyst or broker has just started to make recommendations again only because prices are more stable, then be careful because if they had any conviction in their recommendations they should have advised you to buy when the prices were on their way down, not on their way up.

Anyway for me it’s just a waiting game now to see how things shake out over the first quarter. All eyes are now focussed on upcoming quarterly reports and I am happy to stand aside and just wait for reports to come and looking hard to see how events in the last few months have affected the balance sheets and earning of our companies. Although the Malaysia economy is still sound, the question is whether commodity and hence palm oil prices will remain supported this year. If so, I will keep adding to my palm oil companies. If not, then I will probably continue looking at staples. Either way I am not considering small caps yet.

It’s important to take a step back sometimes and not get sucked into bear rallies thinking that we have reached a bottom and I am just not sure whether we have or not. As an anecdote when Herbie Hancock played with Miles Davis there were a couple of numbers which Herbie would confide in Miles saying that there were areas where he just didn’t know what to play. In response, Miles would just say “If you can’t think of anything to play then just don’t play.” So here I am… not playing and waiting.

If you’re interested, head over to C-span and check out Ben Bernanke’s senate hearing interview, which has provided a very candid assessment of the current financial situation in the US and frank disclosure of the facts behind the Bear Sterns bailout. Very interesting stuff..

Just go to the link here and click on the top 2 search results which come up.