Okay I have posted up the score for this company. It scores a respectable 8. The only thing I am slightly concerned about is that it doesn’t have a good liability - asset ratio. And its receivables are also growing as quickly as its sales. However it is enjoying racing turnover and profit growth - which is something our analysts are banking on. As you will see, it has shot up in the last few days no doubt spurred by analyst reports. Looking at a PE near 20 now it does not seem particularly bargain anymore, but it is still cheap relatively speaking [postscript: Especially if you take 2007 earnings estimates into account - Forward PE is only 15]. I think I will go in tomorrow!
Wish me luck!
Postscript: Today I placed my order to buy UMW. So I thought I would add some information on this company’s businesses for those who aren’t too familiar with it. Okay UMW has 3 core businesses: 1) Car franchises 2) manufacturing of industrial parts and components and distribution of heavy equipment and 3) Upstream oil and gas activities. These aren’t particularly easy sectors to get one’s head around but let’s break’ em down in sections.
Car Franchises
Analysts are banking on the growth of automobile purchases in 2007 as consumer sentiment picks up. In 2006 this company sold less Toyotas and Peroduas than it did in 2005 (it’s a Toyota and Perodua franchise holder). That is not because it was being outsold by other sellers, but because the market for cars was generally worse. Despite that Toyotas and Peroduas have managed to enjoy increasing market shares (mainly at the expense of Proton).
Manufacturing of Industrial Parts and Components and Distribution of Heavy Equipment
This is also supposed to get better in 2007 due to increased construction activity in Malaysia (due to pump priming). The thing I like about this business, alongwith Oil and Gas, is that UMW also competes internationally for contracts (they won 2 large mining contracts in late 2006) and I give them credit for that.
Oil and Gas
This business, which essentially revolves around manufacturing and maintaining pipes, is also well placed due to UMW’s stake in chinese companies which provide oil and gas pipes globally (To customers in China, Korea, Russia etc.) It has also committed quite a large amount to developing its capabilities by buying and building an oil rig and a processing plant (through JVs with other companies). This is also seen as a positive development to help keep up growth and realise more value in its portfolio or assets and services - and explains why it has a relatively high liability to asset ratio!
As a beginner, I find your posts are very interesting and useful.Thanks for keeping such a good blog. UMW seems pricey now, why not, buying into PETDAG. I believe it is very cheap relative to KLCI stocks.
Hello Longboom - Petdag is not a bad stock. Thanks for reminding me about it. As you can see on the scoresheet it scores just as highly as UMW. However I would not compare the 2 companies. Petdag sells petroleum products in Malaysia, whereas UMW sells industrial products, machinery and cars. Also UMW has operations outside Malaysia, unlike Petdag which derives most of its profits from sales within Malaysia. Both are good companies, but UMW is being rewarded a higher price because of its perceived ability to ride the growth in Asia more efficiently and profitably. Which stock you choose depends on what you stock you are looking for to put into your portfolio.
Good luck!